YAS uses proprietary algorithms to predict future performance for each draft prospect based on their physical characteristics and combine performance. This can help narrow down the prospects you can focus on in later rounds. How does it work? First, we took the measurements of each prospect from 2015-2022, and correlated it with their actual NFL performance (as measured by Pro Football Focus, roughly). An algorithm was developed that was specific to each position, to maximize the correlation. Then, the formula was adjusted until we found the right proportions of physical traits that roughly predicted future performance. WE THEN TOOK THAT FORMULA AND APPLIED IT TO EACH INCOMING DRAFT CLASS FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS, WITH SIGNIFICANT RESULTS.
This chart compares the YAS score of every TE from 2015-2022, to their Pro Football Focus score. Their PFF score is an average of their two best years (with enough snaps to qualify) with a bonus given for the number of snaps.
The dots at the bottom signify busts (players that have never played enough snaps to qualify for a score). As you can see, as you increase the YAS score, there are increasingly less busts. The bust rate at 7.2 YAS is 35%. The bust rate at 8.4 is 18%. In other words, you can use YAS to decrease your bust rate regardless of which round you are choosing a player. For the printouts, I have actually increased those bust rates to 45% and 28%, just to be safe.
This only takes into account players who (1) completed enough combine drills to qualify; and (2) were ever on a training camp roster; and (3) did not have their career cut short by injury or legal issues. Rookies are only included if their first year included sufficient snaps to qualify as a score. The trendline is computer generated, and takes into account the average PFF score relative to the YAS, taking into account the busts as zeros. The formulas are very different for each position. Some positions have less data points because lack of participants (Center), and some have less data points because most players do not complete all of the drills (RB).
YAS should not be used to identify picks in rounds 1-3, because their film should be extraordinary. Its use is in rounds 4-UDFA, where player films are unremarkable. YAS narrows down players with athletic traits that denote lower likelihoods of busting. You can narrow down your list to those with a YAS of 7.2 or 8.4. You will miss out on some players with lower YAS scores that will eventually start. But, your bust rate will increase if you group those players into your evaluation pool. The benefit is getting to choose which 13 out of 20 players is likely to start, rather than picking which 17 out of 50 are likely to start.
If you want to see how YAS TE Run and Receiving scores match up against PFF scores, here they are:
Here are the PFF v. YAS charts for the other positions we charted from 2015 to 2022.
This one is not labeled, but it is for defensive tackles.
