Original: Caleb Downs – Safety
Ghost: Caleb Downs – Safety
Why draft Downs, who didn’t get a YAS score? Because, the core tenet of YAS is that it takes over when you have to begin projecting; when the players left on the board do not have tape that look like they could start immediately in the NFL. With the trade-up, I imagine the Dallas staff believed Downs could immediately start.
1(23)
Original: Malachi Lawerence – Edge
Ghost: Malachi Lawerence – Edge
Why Lawerence, he doesn’t have a YAS score either? We defer to the team scouts, particularly in the first round, if there is a chance that they think his film is “immediate start worthy.” However, we also do our homework. Lawerence was missing his agility times. We assigned him bottom-quarter agility times, and his YAS score came out 7.38, which is a likely-starter score. When we take his weight/explosion ratios, they match profile with other prospects that are historically above-mean in their agility times.
3(28)
Original: Jaishawn Barham – LB/Edge
Ghost: Malik Muhammad – CB – Actual 4(24); YAS (2-3)
This is where things get interesting. Barham was also missing his agility times, and did NOT have passing YAS scores if we assigned him bottom-quarter scores at both LB and at Edge. After the draft, the Cowboys indicated he will play off-ball LB, where his athletic profile is fairly mediocre for NFL Starters.
Muhammad has a starter YAS score and had good film in man and zone. More importantly, both Shavon Revel and DaRon Bland missed significant time last year due to injuries. You need at least one immediate starter, and likely need a 2nd that can play in a pinch. If Revel and Bland cannot start, your starting two are Cobie Durant and Caelen Carson, with God knows who playing slot. LB is also a need, but after the trade for Ford, it dips below CB (and we like a late-round LB who can start and immediately produce).
4(12)
Original: Drew Shelton – OT
Ghost: Mike Washington – RB – Actual 4(22); YAS (2)
We had Washington rated as a 2nd rounder, and this was just too good of a value to pass up at this point in the draft. Yes, the cowboys just signed Javonte Williams to a long contract, but he has a massive injury history. After Williams, the RB depth chart gets bleak, fast. Washington has all of the physical tools to be a workhorse that occasionally takes one to the house (4.34 speed). Give me any RB that average 6.5 YPC or more in the SEC (with a terrible Arkansas offensive line), especially at 225 pounds and that kind of speed. His contact balance on film matches his weight/agility ratios, so they are not mirage. Being behind Jeanty will mute his numbers the first few years, but Jeanty tends to run directly into the middle of defenders, and there is a chance that Washington gets more work earlier than we suspect. Finally, his gritty character, combined with his strength, profile as an excellent future pass blocker.
A note for Shelton – Dallas has a deep (if mediocre) OT room. Adding another mediocre player simply does not match the slot value. When we assign bottom-quarter agility times to Shelton, he grades out in the low 4s. He might be more athletic than that, but he did not show it in his testing and the odds are low given his weight/explosion rations.
4(14)
Original: Devin Moore – CB
Ghost: Ephresians Prysock – CB – Actual 4(39); YAS (3-4)
Why Prysock over Moore? They are similar prospects in terms of size, but Moore did not post any agility numbers, and Prysock has more straight line speed. YAS is about certainty, and we are certain that Prysock has the physical tools to be a baseline starting CB in the NFL. If Moore ends up out-playing Prysock, it will be because of mental/processing/technique. We will keep track of these two as time goes on, as it presents an interesting case study on the utility of YAS analysis.
4(37)
Original: LT Overton – 4i/DT
Ghost: Jack Kelley – LB – Actual 6(12); YAS (4)
We try to select positions that the team itself selected, because the team’s real-life actions show their self-perceived needs. We considered Diego Pounds here, to make up for not having an OT to take over Drew Shelton, and the value matched up with him. However Kelley is the LB we noted above. His YAS score indicates starter level athleticism as a LB (and perhaps coming off the edge on the new 3-4 scheme). He has production (two 20-sack seasons), processing (his film is rife with him immediately ignoring eye candy and diagnosing the play), character (team captain) and athleticism (high YAS). With Overshown’s injury history, another LB was needed even with the Ford trade.
Ultimately, Kelley did not go until the 6th round. This will be another interesting case study to see whether YAS finds nuggets that the NFL undervalues, or overvalues significantly (in this case by two rounds).
7(2)
Original: Anthony Smith – WR
Ghost: Anthony Smith – WR
We REALLY wanted to give the Cowboys the OT that was missing (with Diego Pounds being an incredible value at this stage). The missing 4i is less of a concern, as DT is one of the few strengths of the cowboys defensive roster. However, Smith has a high profile and his film matches his athleticism. He is a “get-separation” type of player, just like Fournoy, which is what Prescott loves.
UDFA:
OT Diego Pounds – this is just incredible. We had a 4th ground grade on him as a potential starter. He would be our primary goal. We imagine the Mammoth OT fell out of the draft for injury or character concerns.
DT/4i Krene Konga – This is our LT Overton replacement. His size and athleticism project as a disruptive 4i. He would be our second primary goal in terms of UDFA.
TE Evan Svodoba – a raw but wildly athletic TE out of Wyoming, he is the kind of lottery ticket you take at the position that thrives most on lottery tickets (Antonio Gates).
RB Dean Connors
LB Jack Dingle
Edge Wesley Bailey
Safety Deshon Singleton
OG Caden Barnett
OC Jaren Kump
WR Kyle Dixon