This year, our wrapups were constructed as if we were assisting a war-room, rather than being an omnipotent GM, which would be more realistic to YAS’s role.
We wrote down the names of our suggestions BEFORE the actual pick was chosen. What we wrote below is mostly our picks. There is one exception. If the REAL GM of the actual team took a player that had a passing YAS score (7.2 or higher), we would mostly defer to the pick that was actually chosen unless there was another player, of similar ranking, with a vastly higher YAS score or if the needs were such that YAS could assist in shifting the draft strategy.
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys entered with glaring holes for starting players at OT, OC, and RB. They arguably needed a starting LB. They needed developmental edge players and corners. They also could use a nose tackle, if one was present in the later rounds.
- Round 1 Pick 29
Original Pick: Tyler Guyton, OT
YAS Assisted Pick: Tyler Guyton, OT
Guyton was the last remaining player with a 1st round grade and a passing YAS score, and he filled a position of need. This was a no-brainer.
- Round 2 Pick 56
Original Pick: Marshawn Kneeland, Edge
YAS Assisted Pick: Trey Benson, RB
Multiple players were in consideration here, including Kneeland. This pick illustrates the use that YAS can serve in draft strategy. Scouting is excellent in determining how close a player is, today, to being a starter, but YAS can assist in projecting future play. Marshawn Kneeland was the only immediate-starting-caliber edge remaining, so the initial thought would be to take him, since it is more difficult to draft starters at Edge than RB. However, the Cowboys currently have two excellent starting edge players. Thus, the need that the Cowboys want to fill is for a player that can become a starting edge player in a year or two, not necessarily one that can start today. YAS has identified numerous edge players that can be drafted later that can fill the need of a future-starter without having to utilize a second-round pick. “Drafting for need” becomes less detrimental when you can more accurately draft developmental players.
Knowing that we can find developmental edge players later, we would suggest drafting the starting RB that has a passing YAS score to fill the immediate need of a starter. As you see, later on, the YAS ghost draft eventually picks an edge with a high ceiling. Here, Benson has a 9.48, and presents an immediate starter at RB.
We would still inform the GM that Kneeland does, in fact, have a passing YAS score. So, if they chose to move forward with Kneeland, YAS would not put up a significant argument against that pick.
- Round 3 Pick 73
Original Pick: Cooper Beebee, IOL
YAS Assisted Pick: Cooper Beebee, IOL
If Beebee had not still been available, this would have been a LB. However, Beebee sported a 12.95 YAS score, and scouting reports (per the Beast) matched a projection of a multi-year starting IOL. He was also the last pick with a 1-2 round projection through the YAS board. If he can fill the OC spot or move into LG (allowing Tyler Smith to move to LT and Guyton to take Steele’s place at RT), Beebee presents an immediate upgrade in a starting position. There was no question as to what the choice was, given a 1-2 player was still available in the third round.
- Round 3 Pick 87
Original Pick: Marist Liufau, LB
YAS Assisted Pick: Payton Wilson, LB
We understand that Payton Wilson has medical flags, but his 9.45 YAS score along with his scouting report indicates a ceiling of a perennial pro-bowler at a position of need. The fact that he was drafted later in the third round confirms that the medicals were likely not as bad as reported. This presents another use for YAS analysis. Multiple players project to have similar-or-better odds of becoming a starter compared to Liufau. This includes players projected to go undrafted. Accordingly, there are later options for athletically limited linebacker options free of medical flags. This frees the GM to gamble on a high-ceiling player with medical risks at this point. Yes, we are aware of Sean Lee and LVE.
- Round 5 Pick 174
Original Pick: Caelen Carson, CB
YAS Assisted Pick: Myles Cole, Edge
Cole is our answer to fill the void left by not drafting Marshawn Kneeland. Cole is a physically gifted power rusher that requires some development, but whose upside as a power rusher is so high that he will not need refined technique to be a bull rusher. His strength, explosion and length already make him a plus run defender. We expect Cole to play at a base starter level within his RC. The other option was Eric Watts, but Cole’s 12.87 YAS score is significantly higher than Watts’ 10.92.
Carson had an incomplete YAS score, not a failing one. There is a risk that passing on Carson constitutes passing on a player with a high probability of starting.
- Round 6 Pick 216
Original Pick: Ryan Flournoy, WR
YAS Assisted Pick: Ryan Flournoy, WR
Multiple players were in consideration here, including Flournoy, who has a passing YAS score. As explained above, we tend to defer to the GM in those circumstances. Here, we considered defensive tackles (Fabien Lovett, Gabe Hall), offensive tackles (Nathan Thomas and Frank Crum), centers (Beaux Limmer and Michael Jurgens), and multiple cornerbacks. However, Flournoy has a passing YAS score, and we will defer to the GM in most instances where the actual pick has a passing YAS.
- Round 7 Pick 233
Original Pick: Nathan Thomas, OT
YAS Assisted Pick: Nathan Thomas, OT
Nathan Thomas has a passing YAS score. We would have much preferred Frank Crum, who has a 9.12, but defer to the GM where the actual pick had a passing YAS.
- Round 7 Pick 244
Original Pick: Justin Rogers, DT
YAS Assisted Pick: Fabien Lovett, DT
It appears that the Cowboys were seeking a low-cost noseguard insurance policy, in case Mazey Smith does not regain his form at NG. However, Lovett profiles better as a starting NG.
Priority Free Agents:
OT: Frank Crum
CB: Mike Victor
DT: Gabe Hall
Edge: Eric Watts
LB: Curtis Jacobs
OC: Avery Jones
OG: Bayron Matos
RB: Blake Watson
S: Derek Slywka
TE: Shelton Zeon
WR: Billy Bowen