This is a dubious exercise, in which I “draft” for a team using mostly my analytics, and some guidance from The Beast on where players are expected to go, along with my knowledge on team needs. The purpose is to see whether the overall quality of my draft exceeds that of the Cowboys by the end of their rookie deals. I use only their starting pick slots (before any trades occur), and I pick only from the players available at each position. I understand that there are many factors that can affect future performance (coaching, scheme), and that the player’s traits are only factor. From this exercise, I hope to gain some knowledge as to how far off analytics alone is.
The Cowboys were ousted from the playoffs due to lack of offense. They also lost their starting LG, and will likely lose their starting OC after the coming year (or will be forced to wildly overpay him). They have also spoken about focusing on the run this year, though their IOL losses and lack of run-blocking tight ends might hamper them. They traded for Brandin Cooks, who along with (recovering) Michael Gallup and 2nd year WR Jalen Tolbert should ease some of the urgency to upgrade at WR.
Defensively, they have needs at CB, and looming (but not immediate) needs at LB, DE and NG. All three of those positions currently have older veterans who will eventually need replacement, but will function for this year. Bryan Bresee was a serious consideration, and we believe his lack of production in college was due to unfortunate circumstances.
Overall the exercise had me feeling I was reaching for each of my picks, only to find some validation by the NFL later when they went higher than media scouts had them ranked.
Pick 26: Julius Brents, CB – Kansas State
The Cowboys chose DT Mazi Smith. He is currently a 2-down run stuffing noseguard, whose pass rushing they hope to extend. He may end up being Vita Vea. My decision not to draft him was based on his incomplete YAS score, which forced me to look in other directions. I considered (expected) first-rounders with starter YAS scores such as LB Trenton Simpson, DE Myles Murphy and several tight ends. I believe that the defensive line and tight end class is deep, so I went with the position with high excess value (CB), and a player with a starting-level YAS score. Brents is a good, long athlete at corner who would fit the Dan Quinn mode. At the time I made this pick, he was expected to be a 3rd rounder, though I had him rated as a 1-2. He eventually went 44 overall, so this was not the reach I thought it was. I expect the Diggs negotiations to be contentious, and this should keep the Cowboys out of desperation mode.
I also seriously considered OT Matthew Bergeron, who scored high as an OT in YAS. However, he had an incomplete OG score, so I could not verify that he could alleviate the holes at LG or OC.
Pick 58: Darnell Washington, TE – Georgia
The Cowboys took Luke Schoonmaker, who ALSO has a “Starter” YAS grade. The only reason I went with Darnell Washington here is that Schoonmaker has a similar game and athletic profile to the TEs already on the team (Hendershot and Ferguson). He was a good blocker at Michigan, but if the Cowboys intend to lean on the run, they need a man-mover. Washington will force defenses to keep an extra linebacker in, and he has the athletic profile to be a redzone ace. He has the speed to stretch the seam, so his ceiling is high. In reality, he went almost a full round later, so this appears to be a reach. I would not normally take a TE this high due to the long development time required to contribute, but the “run now” philosophy change required something urgently.
Jalin Hyatt was still available, who had a starter grade. This was a toss-up. The only reason I went Washington’s way was that the WR room seems to have functional pieces for now, and the TE room appears incomplete on the run blocking that is about to be emphasized. Trenton Simpson was also available, and he had a starter YAS grade with a top 2-round consensus score.
Pick 90: Adetomiwa Adebawore, DE/DT – Northwestern
Before I write about the pick, I will admit that I lost out on a player I sorely wanted. OC Juice Scruggs was my answer for the OL questions, but I did not expect him to be picked until the 4th round at the earliest. The Texans took him in the 2nd, which sent the rest of draft plans scrambling.
The Cowboys took Demarvion Overshown who did not receive a high YAS. Adebawore, on the other hand, has the speed, length, lateral quickness and turning quickness to be a DE, and the size/strength to be a pass-rushing 3-technique. His game is unrefined, but that is what DQ is on the staff for. He profiles as a plus run defender and rusher from both positions. Micah Parsons wore down last year because he came primarily off the edge, which took a toll on his body. Adebawore could free Parsons up on early downs to blitz or read, to keep his legs fresh. On passing downs, Adebawore can spin down to DT with Parsons off the edge in a “Ferrari package”. It appears that I took Adebawore almost a full round too early.
I had considered OG Sidy Sow and Jon Gaines, but dismissed them because I (incorrectly) believed they would be available later. Edge Isaiah McGuire was also in consideration. I already began considering TE Zach Kuntz, but two tight ends drafted this high did not seem like efficient resource distribution.
Pick 129: Olusegun Oluwatimi, OC – Michigan
The Cowboys took DE Vilami Fehoko, who did not receive a high YAS. The drafting of Adebawore rendered his pick moot. I desperately wanted TE Zack Kuntz, who has a massive YAS, but could not rationalize that pick because of the Darnell Washington pick earlier.
I chose OC Olusegun Oluwatimi, who also has a 2-sigma YAS OC score. Losing Juice Scruggs terrified me, and I needed to grab the only other center I trusted. He was also highly decorated in college, so we do not fear his mental acuity. Fortune actually turned out better than my plans, because Oluwatimi’s measurables would also warrant a passing OG score. He could solve two problems. He can fill the hole at LG for this year, and transition to Center next year if Biadasz proves too expensive. CB Darrell Luter and Cory Trice (explained below) were considered, but the 1st round pick made them redundant.
Pick 169: Andrei Iosivas, WR – Pinceton
Again, Kuntz was a consideration. However, we passed up on Hyatt in the 2nd round, and the Cowboys have no WR that threaten anyone with speed. We also seriously considered Evan Hull, who would be a “workmanlike” RB with a “starter” YAS score, the way Tyler Allgeier was last year. There were few RBs who completed enough drills to receive a YAS score, so passing on Hull was a painful decision. AT Perry, Zack Evans, Dante Stills, Ochaun Mathis, Luke Wypler and Jake Witt were also considered.
At this point, I have to point out that the only reason Cory Trice was not chosen here was that players who have a high YAS and good film, who are expected to go high (and subsequently drop) usually end up with a medical or character concern. Even though I do not have the security or medical information, I avoid them after a 4-round drop so that they do not ruin the exercise. If he is clean, he would have been the pick here.
Pick 212: Zack Kuntz, TE – Old Dominion
Resources be damned. He profiles as a game changing TE, and at this stage in the draft, he had been a blinking red light for three rounds. There were not really any other considerations. It is difficult to track the Cowboys pick-for-pick at this stage because a trade was made. Roughly in this area, the Cowboys chose Deuce Vaughn, who did not complete enough drills to obtain a YAS score.
Pick 244: Jerrod Clark, NG – Coastal Carolina
We recognize that the team apparently wanted a long-term answer at NG, after Jonathan Hankins’ next deal. A 2-down NG with no pass rush is a position we would reserve for the later rounds. If Mazi Smith does add pass rush, that obviously does not apply. We had originally wanted Brodric Martin, but he went significantly earlier than we anticipated.
UDFA – I only gave myself one UDFA for each position.
WR – Bryce Ford Wheaton – W. Virginia: He is a Megatron-level athlete. Much like Cory Tice, his fall leads us to believe he either has maturity issues, medical issues or cognitive defects negating his athleticism. However, as an UDFA, this is a gamble we are willing to make. He is, at the very least, the most formidable special teams gunner imaginable.
OG – Henry Byrd – Princeton: No, I do not have a thing for Princeton players. His YAS hinted possible starter-level play if developed.
OT – Trevor Reid – Louisville
RB – Andrew Claire – Northwestern
Edge – Spencer Waege – North Dakota State
LB – Nathan East – Samford
TE – Ben Sims – Baylor
OC – Alex Philstrom – Illinois
DT – Keenan Agnew – Southern Illinois
CB – Kaleb Hayes – BYU
EDIT – It has come to light that Darnell Washington had a medical issue with one of his knees. This is information that obviously only the NFL teams have, and they acted upon it. If the knee condition is a long-term issue (and not merely a one-year issue), then YAS would have taken LB Trenton Simpson, Clemson, in the 2nd round.